Ankara Poised to Assist Syrian Military as SDF Integration Stalls
As debates over the integration of YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into Syria’s new government and army continue, Turkey has completed preparations to support Damascus in a potential operation.
Turkish security sources told Mintel World that, under the military cooperation agreement between the two countries, Ankara is prepared to assist any Syrian government operation with observation, technical intelligence, and air support. “A major Turkish intervention against the SDF is not on the agenda for now, but we are ready to support Damascus,” the sources said, adding that developments in Sweida have influenced the debates in northern Syria.
Following the spike in tensions in early July, clashes in Suwayda and what sources described as support from Israel for separatist Druze leader Hikmet al-Hicri “emboldened the YPG/SDF,” prompting the group to deviate from the March 10 integration accord, the sources claimed. They noted there had been little tangible progress on the accord even before the Suwayda events, after which Ankara increased pressure on the group.
FM FIDAN WARNED
On August 13, after talks with his Syrian counterpart Esad al-Sheybani, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the SDF was seeking Israeli backing to maintain control in eastern Syria while stalling Ankara to buy time.
“Some actors in the region want chaos—chief among them Israel. No one should take offense: no one is naive. We are not naive. The fact that we invest in this process in good faith does not mean we don’t see the little tricks you are trying to pull,” Fidan said—a remark many policy commentators read as a final warning. About a week earlier, he had cautioned that Turkey would intervene if YPG/SDF actions posed a threat to Turkey’s national security.
Turkish security sources added that continued YPG rhetoric misaligned with realities on the ground could lead Turkey to expand military support for Damascus, and, if required, pave the way for a broader intervention. For now, they said, the situation is being monitored closely.
DIPLOMATIC MESSAGE FROM SYRIAN PRESIDENT
Despite rising tensions, all sides publicly say they do not want a new major war in Syria. Even so, given recent developments—particularly Israel’s actions—Ankara and Damascus may feel compelled to mount a limited or wider operation against the SDF despite their ongoing peace process with the PKK.
A few days ago, Syrian President Ahmad al-Shaara met with notable figures from the Idlib region and said Damascus wants to resolve SDF integration through dialogue, but sees inconsistencies between the group’s rhetoric and its moves on the ground.
Model-based assessments suggest that direct Israeli intervention in a government–SDF confrontation in northern Syria is unlikely. However, a large-scale clash ignited by the YPG/SDF could re-fracture Syria and reignite a regional crisis both inside and beyond the country.