Baghdad, Erbil and international oil companies have agreed in principle on a framework to resume crude exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port after more than two years of suspension. Under the plan, about 230,000 barrels per day will be delivered to Iraq’s state marketer SOMO, while 50,000 barrels per day will be used locally. Sales would be conducted in Ceyhan by an “independent trader” at SOMO’s official prices, with $16 per barrel placed into an escrow account for distribution to producers.
(Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline)
As of September 22, negotiators said they had resolved the payment dispute that halted exports in March 2023. Final signatures are expected this week, and Ankara has been told flows could resume “in the coming days.”
However, several unresolved issues continue to cast uncertainty:
Arrears to IOCs
International oil companies are owed roughly $1 billion, but no binding repayment plan has been announced. Firms are expected to grant temporary approval, with earlier statements suggesting repayment would come from future output.
Pipeline Agreement
Turkey terminated the 1973 Iraq–Turkey pipeline treaty in July 2025. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Ankara has submitted a new draft agreement to Baghdad and is ready to restart exports, but it remains unclear which companies will operate the transport and how Iraq will respond.
Operational Signals
Despite repeated political statements that exports could resume “within 48 hours,” there have been no confirmed tanker nominations or loading schedules for Kurdish crude at Ceyhan.
Outstanding Debts
The Kurdistan Regional Government reportedly owes around $6 billion to traders such as Vitol and Petraco, with no clarity on repayment terms.
In sum, political momentum has clearly accelerated and signatures now seem imminent, but until repayment schedules, trader designation, and the Ankara–Baghdad pipeline framework are fully settled, a sustainable and credible restart of Kurdish exports through Ceyhan will remain uncertain.
