Between Security and Occupation: The Fate of Israel’s Buffer Zone in Syria

Even though Israel’s “de facto buffer zone” east of the Golan Heights violates the 1974 separation agreements, the Tel Aviv government maintains it for security reasons. So, what might the future of this buffer zone be?

First contacts after the fall of the Assad regime

On July 12, 2025, during Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Azerbaijan, Syrian and Israeli officials met in Baku to discuss Israel’s military presence in Syria. US Special Representative for Syria, Barrack, made statements supporting this dialogue, in line with the US diplomatic approach of “preventing conflict and promoting dialogue” in Syria policy.

Paris Contacts

Syria and Israel held their first direct talks under US mediation. During the US-brokered talks, Syria and Israel discussed restoring a 1974 ceasefire declared to reduce tensions following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Syria and Israel held their first direct talks on Tuesday, with Foreign Minister Assad Hassan Shaybani meeting with an Israeli delegation in the US-brokered talks aimed at reducing tensions in the region following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. According to Syrian state news agency SANA, the two sides discussed restoring a 1974 ceasefire agreement that established a buffer zone between Syria and Israel.

Israel’s establishment of a buffer zone beyond the Golan

Following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel established a 168-square-kilometer buffer zone between the new government and the Golan Heights. Netanyahu argued that this step was necessary because a “new front” opened on Israel’s border with Syria after Assad’s ouster. Netanyahu announced plans to double the population of the Golan Heights, which Israel captured during the 1967 Six-Day War and occupied illegally under international law.

Israel captured the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and its positions. Netanyahu stated that they had seized the buffer zone and that the 50-year agreement between Syria and Israel regarding this zone was annulled with the overthrow of the Assad regime. Military sources, however, stated that the buffer zone in Syria was temporary at the time of Assad’s fall.

The future of the buffer zone

Israel controls a 168 km² area beyond the Golan Heights. The advance beyond the Golan Heights was made to prevent new forces from reaching the Israeli border following the fall of the Assad regime. Israel stated that it entered Syria to establish a buffer zone between itself and the new government.

The permanence scenario may come true. Israel, citing security concerns, could make the buffer zone permanent in the long term. It could extend its “we will never leave the Golan Heights” narrative to include the “buffer line.” This would create a buffer zone for Israel in southern Syria (especially the Daraa-Suwayda line). Israel could justify this by citing the possibility of anti-Israeli jihadist elements in southern Syria.

A temporary security line scenario could occur. Israel maintains the buffer zone as a “temporary” measure. If, in fact, there are no heavy weapons or remnants of Iran or Hezbollah left in southern Syria, it could withdraw years later. Israel believes there could still be, and sometimes is, an Iranian and Hezbollah presence in southern Syria.

An expansion scenario toward Suwayda could be feasible. If the new Damascus government in southern Syria (around Suwayda or Daraa) takes a more aggressive stance against the Hijri-backed Druze militias in Suwayda, Israel could expand its de facto buffer zone. This would escalate the international crisis, but Israel could establish a deep security perimeter all the way to Suwayda under the pretext of “preventive security.” This would create a forced status quo with local tribes and the Druze in southern Syria.

If Israel faces excessive pressure from the US, Russia, or the UN to maintain the buffer zone, it could be forced to withdraw. In this case, even if Israel withdraws from the buffer zone, it would maintain constant surveillance via military surveillance stations and drones. In other words, it would appear to have “de facto withdrawn” but maintain its security presence.

The worst-case scenario: Israel would never leave the buffer zone, viewing it as a “natural extension of its Golan annexation.” It could build civilian infrastructure (roads, military bases, observation towers) there, as it has done with the Golan over the years, making it “irreversible.” In this case, southern Syria would be effectively under Israeli control, rendering the 1974 agreement null and void.

A controlled conflict scenario could materialize. If the Syrian army or Iranian-backed militias approach the buffer zone, limited clashes could erupt. Israel could use these clashes as a pretext to further deepen the buffer zone. Thus, the buffer zone would become both a security perimeter and a permanent conflict zone.

Abraham Accords

It was signed in 2020 under US mediation. It aims to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab countries. The UAE and Bahrain were the first to sign. Morocco also joined in 2020. Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Indonesia, and Mauritania are countries that were either pressured by the US to join or are considering joining.

1974 Agreements

The 1974 Israel-Syria Armistice Agreements were signed after the Yom Kippur War (1973). According to the agreement, Israel withdrew from certain areas east of the Golan Heights. A 235 km² buffer zone was established under UN supervision. The UN deployed UNDOF forces in the buffer zone. However, Israel retained control of the strategic heights and a large portion of the Golan Heights.

Syrian Foreign Minister Shaybani recently made a statement on the matter: “The Israeli occupation violates the 1974 Disengagement Agreement and Security Council resolutions by establishing intelligence centers and military outposts on Syrian territory.

We call on the United Nations and the UNDOF mission to take full responsibility for documenting and stopping Israeli attacks and violations.”

Diplomatic Contacts

• On December 10, Israeli Defense Minister Katz:

Anyone who follows Assad’s path will end up like Assad.
We will not allow a radical Islamist terrorist organization to make moves against Israel from behind our borders.
We will do whatever is necessary to eliminate this threat.

• Senior Israeli official:

If the new regime in Syria moves against Israel, if it allows Iran to attack Israel from Syrian territory, we will make it pay a heavy price.
Israel will not interfere in Syria’s internal affairs but will resolutely ensure its security.
We hope the new regime will fight solely for the Syrian people and restore Syria to the center of the Arab world.

• On December 11, the Israeli army told the people of the buffer zone in Syria that it was not planning to occupy the area.

• On December 13, Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced that Israeli troops would remain in the Syrian territories they occupied after the regime’s overthrow throughout the winter months.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar:

Syria has not been stabilized.
The regime in Damascus is actually a gang, not a legitimate government.
Areas like Idlib are controlled by Islamist organizations with extremist ideologies.
Damascus is the center of the regime, but they are absent from all of Syria.
These so-called leaders are the gang in Idlib, not an overarching authority.
The rulers are Islamists with a radical worldview.
Why is the world so eager to engage with Damascus? After all, we are facing an Islamist regime, not a moderate government.

Conclusion

Considering Israel’s historical practice (the Golan Heights, the occupation of Southern Lebanon, and de facto control of the West Bank), once it has secured a buffer zone, it will not readily relinquish it. Israel can only withdraw if there are international guarantees and a significant security shift on the ground.

Looking at the overall picture, Israel’s historical practice suggests it will not abandon the buffer zone in the short term. The most drastic scenario is that the buffer zone becomes permanent and expands over time.