China Holds Back Major Military Activity After Taiwan Leader’s Speech
China has refrained from mounting large-scale military operations around Taiwan following President William Lai Ching-te’s Double Tenth policy speech, marking a significant change from previous years.
Taiwan’s defence ministry reported no surge in Chinese military activity around the island following President William Lai Ching-te’s annual Double Tenth policy speech, a sharp contrast to the large-scale drills that followed last year’s address.
According to ministry data, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted between seven and 27 sorties per day in the week after Lai’s October 10 speech, roughly in line with normal activity levels. Last year, Lai’s remarks triggered “Joint Sword-2024B,” a massive exercise involving over 150 aircraft that Beijing said was punishment for Taipei’s “provocations.”
Analysts noted that Lai’s latest speech was more measured than his 2024 address, which had explicitly stated that Taiwan and China were “not subordinate to each other.” While Lai maintained a pro-independence tone, he avoided that phrase this year, a move observers said likely helped avert an immediate PLA escalation.
In his remarks, Lai pledged to increase defence spending to more than 3% of GDP in 2026 and up to 5% by 2030. He also announced the T-Dome air defence system, designed to counter missile and drone threats. Beijing dismissed the plan as an act that would “drag the island into a dangerous situation of war.”
Military commentator Song Zhongping told mainland media that the PLA remains ready to conduct exercises “at any time if necessary,” noting that its readiness levels allow for rapid mobilization.
Beijing views Taiwan as part of China and has not ruled out using force to seize the island. The PLA has conducted regular air and naval patrols, and several major drills, around Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit, using them to test blockade and strike scenarios.
Since Lai took office in May 2024, three large-scale PLA exercises have been directly tied to his speeches or policy actions, including his inauguration, his first Double Tenth address, and a national security policy rollout earlier this year.
Though October has seen no comparable escalation, Chinese state media has aired footage of night landing drills off Fujian and live-fire exercises along the southeast coast, signaling that Beijing’s military posture toward Taiwan remains tense but controlled.
Escalating PLA Activity in 2025
Despite avoiding a major escalation in recent months, China has steadily intensified military pressure on Taiwan throughout 2025. The year began with a sharp uptick in PLA air and naval operations, including the first major combat patrol of January, when Taiwan’s defence ministry reported 22 aircraft and accompanying warships operating around the island. Analysts noted a significant rise in median line crossings in the Taiwan Strait, with over 200 PLA aircraft crossing the unofficial boundary in January alone, far exceeding previous monthly averages.
By early April, Beijing launched Strait Thunder–2025A, a coordinated two-day exercise involving air, naval, and missile units encircling Taiwan. The drills simulated blockade and strike scenarios, reflecting a shift toward joint-force readiness and rapid encirclement capabilities. Beijing framed the operation as a direct response to Taipei’s political stance and growing defence ties with Western partners.
In May, Taiwan tracked 34 Chinese warplanes and eight naval vessels conducting joint manoeuvres near the island, alongside movements of the Shandong aircraft carrier group through the Philippine Sea. These deployments were seen as strategic signalling, aimed at testing Taiwan’s air defence response and rehearsing maritime interdiction routes.
A major escalation occurred in late June, when 74 warplanes were dispatched in a single day, with 61 crossing the median line, one of the largest single-day incursions in recent years. Although no live-fire zone was declared, the manoeuvre underscored the PLA’s capacity to rapidly surge forces around the island.
While large-scale punitive drills, such as those seen in previous years, have not yet been repeated in 2025, Chinese state media continues to release footage of night assault rehearsals and coastal live-fire exercises in Fujian, keeping military pressure high without triggering full-scale crisis. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence has warned that the PLA is refining its ability to conduct sudden, high-intensity operations under the guise of routine patrols.
