Will Ukraine Give Up Its Territory For a Ceasefire?

Russian President Putin and US President Trump met in Alaska on August 15th. The two sides held a meeting to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The US displayed a show of force with F-35 and B-2 fighter jets during Putin’s landing in Alaska.

(F-35s and B-2, Alaska)

Trump-Putin Meeting

The Trump-Putin meeting shifted from a one-on-one meeting to a three-on-three format. Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, and Trump’s ambassador Witkoff participated on the US side, while Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov, and Uchakov (a foreign policy advisor to the Russian president and former Russian ambassador to the United States) participated on the Russian side.

The Putin-Trump meeting lasted almost three hours.

Putin’s talks with Trump in Alaska were their longest bilateral meeting, Bloomberg reported.

Trump called Zelensky and European leaders after the summit with Putin, Fox News reported. Trump had previously said he would call the Europeans and Zelensky if the meeting went well.

In his post-meeting press statement, Putin stated that he had always viewed the Ukrainian nation as a brotherly nation, that Russia was sincerely interested in ending the Ukrainian conflict, that he hoped that mutual understanding would bring peace to Ukraine, that the meeting with Trump was constructive and respectful, and that he agreed with Trump’s words, “If I were President in 2022, there would be no war in Ukraine.”

In his post-meeting press statement, Trump stated that there’s no deal until there’s a deal, that they’ve made great progress, that the meeting with Putin was difficult, but that he has an excellent relationship with Putin, that it was an extremely productive meeting and that agreements were reached on many issues.

At the end of the press conference, Putin invited Trump to Moscow.

After the press conference, Trump spoke to Fox News.

Donald Trump: Now it’s up to Zelensky to actually finish the job. They’ll set up a meeting between Zelensky, Putin, and me. (Referring to Putin’s words) I’m so glad to hear you say that if I were president, there would never be a war. (To Zelensky) Make a deal. Russia is a very powerful power, and Ukraine isn’t. China and Russia are essentially natural enemies. Russia has a tremendous amount of land, and China has a tremendous amount of people. China needs Russia’s land.

Trump: Both Zelensky and Putin want me to their meeting. I’ll be there. Putin said something. He said, “Your election was rigged because it was by mail.” He said, “Voting by mail, not every election, not in any country has mail voting. It’s impossible to vote by mail and have honest elections.” And he told me this because we were talking about 2020. He said, “You won that election by a landslide.”

Although both sides gave positive responses after the meeting and press statement, no agreement or ceasefire could be reached on the field.

Trump and Putin said there had been “progress,” but no concrete agreement had been reached.

The summit ended earlier than planned, with the working lunch and extended talks cancelled.

No joint statement or joint mechanism on Ukraine was announced.

Trump said: “No deal without a deal,” and indicated he would brief Zelenskyy later; he also framed the next steps as being partly “up to President Zelensky.”

Putin described the talks as “constructive” and said they had reached an “understanding” but did not provide terms.

Trump told Fox News he might postpone new tariffs on China related to Russian oil purchases, citing “progress” with Putin, again without providing details.

Axios reported that Trump spoke with Zelensky and European leaders for over an hour and a half to brief them on his meeting with Putin. Trump held an hour-long meeting with Zelensky, joined by Secretary of State Rubio and Trump’s Ambassador Witkoff, who also attended the Putin meeting. The leaders of the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Finland, and Poland, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also joined for another half hour.

Zelensky stated that he plans to discuss all the details regarding the end of the massacres and the end of the war with President Trump in Washington on Monday, August 18.

Axios reported that the meeting between Trump, Zelensky and NATO leaders was not easy.

US President Trump told Zelensky and NATO leaders that Putin didn’t want a ceasefire and preferred a comprehensive agreement to end the war. “I think a quick peace deal is better than a ceasefire,” Trump said, according to a source on the call.

What Does Russia Want in Return for a Ceasefire or Agreement?

According to the NYT, Trump told European leaders that peace could come quickly if Zelensky ceded all of Donbas, including the areas not under Russian control, to Russia. In return, Putin offered a ceasefire along existing lines and a written commitment not to attack Ukraine or Europe again.

A US official briefed on the Trump-Zelensky meeting told the NYT that Zelensky would ask Trump to clarify his offer during his visit to Washington on Monday.

According to Axios, Putin proposed freezing the front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk. He also demanded that the US recognize the occupied Ukrainian territories and Crimea as part of Russia.

(Latest situation in Ukraine)

According to Axios, during the meeting, the US side got the impression that Putin was open to negotiations over the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

According to the NYT, Putin demanded security guarantees for Russian Orthodox churches, as well as guarantees that Russian be reinstated as an official language in Ukraine. Putin agreed with Trump that Ukraine should have strong security guarantees after a deal, but emphasized that it should not be part of NATO.

According to Reuters, Zelensky refused to give up on Donbas in meetings with Trump and European leaders, who were also invited to the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.

Conclusion

Requests of the Russian Side

Russia will return to Ukraine the small occupied territories in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblast. Ukraine will completely abandon Donetsk and Luhansk, while Russia will halt the advance on Kherson/Zaporizhia.

Moscow wants official recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea.

Ukraine would be prevented from joining NATO, but would be allowed to obtain alternative “security guarantees.”

Russia expects at least partial lifting of sanctions.

The Russian side wants official status for the Russian language and freedom for the Russian Orthodox Church.

There is no ceasefire until a full agreement is reached.

Requests of the Ukrainian Side

Ukrainian President Zelensky states that a land swap is not possible because it cannot happen due to the constitution.

The Ukrainian side is hesitant to give up territory without a definitive agreement.

Trump’s envoy Witkoff, claims on CNN that Trump and Putin agreed on “strong security guarantees” such as “Article 5 protection from the US.”

The issue of land swaps, which ultimately fall under Ukrainian control, will be discussed on August 18.

The US side conveys that both sides must take something and give something.

Ukraine is considering joining the EU under the security guarantees.

US Secretary of State Rubio (on the transfer of territory to Russia): Ukrainians are not willing to give it up, and no one is forcing Ukraine to give it up… If there is to be a peace agreement, it won’t look like this.

Trump: Ukraine must accept the loss of some territory to Russia, otherwise the longer the war continues the more territory they will continue to lose.

The Ukrainian side states that they need a security that will work in practice, such as NATO’s Article 5.

Zelensky: The Ukrainian Constitution makes it impossible to give away land or exchange land.

Trump: Zelensky could end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wanted to, or he could continue fighting.

What Do the Both Sides Want?

The Russian side wants all the lands currently occupied by Russia to be recognized as Russian territory, Ukraine to withdraw completely from the Donbass region, and Russian to be spoken in Ukraine. In return, it says that the front lines outside the Donbass region will be frozen in Zaporizhia and Kherson, and that the minor occupations in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts will end.

The Ukrainian side states that territorial surrender is not possible due to the constitution, that if there is to be an agreement with Russia, Ukraine must join the EU under security guarantees, and that they need a security system that will work, such as NATO’s Article 5.

The US side is conveying that Ukraine can end the war immediately if they want, that Ukraine must accept the loss of some territory, otherwise, in a scenario where the war is prolonged, Ukraine will lose more territory.